Flagship Report:
Imagining the future of Indonesian food systems
In an effort to address the gaps between research findings and existing practices in the field of food systems and sustainable development in Indonesia, foodagogik conducted a Delphi study from January to March 2024 that centered on the following question: Which food system entry points are likely to be effective, impactful, and strategic to transform the current Indonesian food systems and can provide a positive climate and health co-benefits within the next 10 years? It aims to 1) present a consensus over effective food system entry points in Indonesia for achieving better health and environmental sustainability and 2) provide future research directions based on a collective, positive vision for food system transformation specific to Indonesian contexts. The research process was included as part of our 2024 Work Program and was facilitated by the initial funding sources without any support from external parties.
Keywords: sustainable food systems transformation, food system dynamics, food system leverage points, Delphi study, Indonesian food systems
Chapter list
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The Introduction section outlines the theoretical framework of the food system as a dynamic, socio-ecological system and operationalizes the notion of ‘transformation’ through the lenses of vulnerability and resilience, specifically within the Indonesian contexts. Several key points are defined here that will be referenced throughout the remainder of the paper.
Food has changed the trajectory of our world. On the production side, it contributes to about a third of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and is a major driver of biodiversity loss, ecosystem degradation, freshwater depletion, and the crossing of other planetary boundaries crucial to maintaining Earth's stability. On the consumption side, over 820 million people lack adequate food, and more than 3 billion cannot afford a healthy diet. The increasing availability of ultra-processed foods (UPFs) is contributing to the rise of diet-related non-communicable diseases (NCDs), including undernutrition, overnutrition, and micronutrient deficiencies, resulting in up to 11 million deaths annually.
If current trends continue, along with the impacts of climate change, population growth, aging, increased body mass, and wasteful consumption patterns, global food production is projected to increase from 30 to 45 Exajoules by 2050. This triple burden—comprising obesity, undernutrition, and climate change—poses one of the most severe challenges to human health, environmental sustainability, and the future of the planet in the 21st century, with food systems at the heart of this crisis.
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Chapter 1 discusses current Indonesian food systems and the specific issues of concern affecting food system outcomes, particularly those related to diets, nutrition, health, economic development, societal change, and environmental sustainability. It exposes the elements of Indonesian food systems and possible missing links that have thus far been underexplored and/or undocumented. It then proposes what sustainable transformation constitutes for the Indonesian context.
Indonesia faces complex challenges related to food security, climate change, and public health. As the population grows and the country remains highly vulnerable to climate change, building a resilient food supply chain is essential to support the projected population of 319 million by 2045. Current policies addressing food, climate, and health issues are inadequate, calling for greater cooperation among key stakeholders—government, industry, academia, and Indigenous communities—to ensure the well-being of both people and the environment. This collaboration is vital for achieving Indonesia's "Golden 2045 Vision."
Climate change is a major factor driving changes in Indonesia’s food system, with the country consistently ranking among the top ten greenhouse gas emitters. In addition to emissions, the loss of biodiversity is worsening environmental impacts on the food system. On the health front, Indonesia shares many diet-related public health challenges seen in industrialized nations, including malnutrition and rising diet-related diseases. Addressing these issues requires a deeper examination of the interconnected factors within both environmental and health systems.
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Chapter 2 examines the ten food system entry points identified in the Delphi study and the rationale behind their effectiveness based on existing literature. It discusses the potential enablers and barriers of implementing these entry points for the current food system and how to mitigate or minimize risks.
Although a global shift toward plant-forward diets, improved food production, and reduced food loss and waste are key factors for transforming food systems, Indonesia’s strategies may differ due to local context. Based on Delphi surveys, ten critical entry points (EPs) were identified as highly important (rated 9 on the Likert scale) for promoting health and environmental sustainability in Indonesia over the next decade. Of these, three EPs reached strong consensus (>70% agreement and IQR <1): (1) supporting sustainable food policies with monitoring and evaluation, (2) encouraging youth involvement, and (3) diversifying crop production and boosting land productivity. Additionally, literature identified two crucial EPs for sustainable food systems: (1) creating supportive food environments and (2) leveraging science and research for transformation.
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Chapter 3 outlines the pathways toward sustainable transformation through science and research. It proposes the final Indonesian Sustainable Food Systems Framework as adapted from the framework in Chapter 1 and presents the critical role of science and research in accelerating the achievement of three key outputs necessary for realizing the desired food systems outcomes. It also provides the relevant approaches and methodologies that have proved successful in catalyzing transformation across various contexts.
Transforming food systems to be more inclusive, nourishing, and regenerative requires significant changes in the roles of youth, vulnerable groups, agrifood production, policies, supply chains, and economic development. Science and research play a crucial role in enabling this transformation by offering tools to identify the key drivers of change. Understanding how different variables interact in various contexts and regions is crucial for guiding sustainable food system changes. This involves identifying climate and health challenges as key drivers, assessing their impact on food systems, and determining if they create feedback loops that either reinforce or balance change. By clearly identifying these drivers, we can estimate tradeoffs between human health and environmental sustainability and find the most effective points to start transforming the food system sustainability.
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Transforming food systems for sustainable climate and health outcomes is essential to achieving the SDGs. However, not all transformations will instantly yield the desired results. A stronger evidence base, both globally and nationally, is needed to ensure these changes lead to more inclusive, nourishing, and regenerative food systems. The next decade should focus on building a stronger, contextually and culturally relevant evidence base for food system science in Indonesia. This involves developing methods that fit specific constraints and provide actionable, real-world results across different scales, ensuring evidence is sufficient to guide practical decisions.
Embracing complexity in Indonesia's food systems means incorporating the unique contexts and cultures of its diverse regions. Using system dynamics can effectively capture these complexities, enabling more comprehensive and adaptable strategies.
While science evolves with new data, we don't need to wait for all the evidence before making changes. It's crucial to act now and generate credible evidence to guide food system transformation for positive societal outcomes.